In the face of climate change, certain French regions could attract homebuyers seeking more temperate living conditions.
In 2022, climate disasters displaced millions of people worldwide. France, though less affected than some countries, is not spared: more than half of the French population is currently exposed to high or very high climate risks. These threats take various forms, such as severe forest fires, like those that devastated the Gironde, or floods caused by torrential rains.
France is experiencing the full impact of climate change: steadily rising temperatures, sea-level rise contributing to accelerated coastal erosion, and increasingly prolonged and intense droughts that fuel wildfires. Added to these phenomena is the growing frequency and intensity of storms and flooding events, affecting both coastal areas and river basins.
In this context, some historically less-exposed regions may become sought-after refuges for populations fleeing high-risk areas. Among these potentially attractive territories, regions with moderate climates and favorable geography, such as parts of Brittany or the Massif Central, could stand out. Their low exposure to wildfires, altitude reducing the risks associated with rising sea levels, and still-pleasant summer temperatures make them increasingly appealing.
The repercussions of these dynamics on real estate markets are already evident: areas that were previously less coveted are seeing property prices rise as people anticipate the consequences of climate upheaval. Conversely, once-popular areas, such as certain coastal resorts or southern regions, are losing appeal due to escalating risks.
These internal climate migrations are expected to intensify in the coming years, gradually reshaping the patterns of demographic and real estate flows in France. Real estate stakeholders and public policymakers alike will need to adapt to these shifts by integrating climate factors into their planning and investment strategies.
As a result, the choice of a place to live will no longer be based solely on economic or cultural criteria but increasingly on issues related to climate resilience and quality of life preservation.
According to Météo France projections for a heatwave summer in 2050, Brittany emerges as one of the coolest regions in France. While temperatures in central France could reach 40 degrees Celsius, the Finistère region is not expected to exceed 32 degrees. This climate advantage may lead to a reassessment of regional desirability in the years ahead, particularly among buyers attuned to climate concerns.
Although we are not yet witnessing a massive influx, this trend has been growing steadily over the years. It primarily involves seniors who sell their main residences in the South of France to acquire properties, for instance, along the Emerald Coast or in southern Brittany.
In this context, Brittany, with its temperate climate and lower exposure to natural disasters, is establishing itself as a favored destination, offering an attractive lifestyle and a sense of security in the face of climate disruptions that are reshaping real estate preferences in France.
Brittany could even become the most populated region in France within the next thirty years, buoyed by its undeniable climate advantages. This prospect is supported by a reassuring fact: the region still has sufficient land reserves to accommodate "climate exiles" seeking a refuge from environmental upheavals in the medium term.
The gradual arrival of new residents will inevitably impact the Breton real estate market. This anticipated influx could exacerbate pressure on property prices, profoundly transforming the region's real estate landscape. With its temperate climate, relative resilience to climate risks, and preserved landscapes, Brittany is emerging as a land of the future, where a delicate balance between welcoming newcomers and safeguarding the environment must be carefully managed to meet the challenges of the coming decades.